What Does the Strait of Hormuz Closure Mean for My Shipments? A Freight Forwarder's Guide (May 2026)

The Crisis in Brief: Strait of Hormuz freight forwarding 2026

Since 28 February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, has been effectively closed to normal commercial shipping. The closure followed US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, which prompted Iran to blockade the strait in retaliation. The consequences for international freight have been swift, severe, and far-reaching.

For context: the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20–25% of all seaborne oil trade, approximately 20% of the world's LNG, and a meaningful share of global container traffic on any given day. Unlike other maritime choke points, there is no practical bypass for cargo originating inside the Persian Gulf, the oil and goods are produced there, so vessels simply cannot load elsewhere.

As of May 2026, commercial transit through the strait remains heavily restricted. Iran has established a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to vet and tax vessels, with reported tolls exceeding $1 million per vessel in some cases. Over 1,550 vessels are stranded in or near the Gulf, with an estimated 22,500 mariners trapped. DHL's CEO of Global Forwarding for the Middle East and Africa has publicly advised customers to plan for 4–6 months of ongoing disruption, delays, and elevated costs.

How Has This Affected Freight Rates?

(Strait of Hormuz freight forwarding 2026)

The impact on rates has been dramatic and felt across multiple cost layers simultaneously:

Ocean Freight Spot Rates have surged by 3 to 4 times pre-conflict levels on affected routes. The combination of mass vessel rerouting, capacity shortages, and record-high bunker fuel costs (oil peaked at $118 per barrel during the acute phase) has driven rates to levels not seen since the post-COVID supply chain crises.

War Risk Surcharges have been imposed by all major carriers. These add between $1,500 and $4,000 per container on top of base freight rates for affected corridors, depending on the carrier and route.

Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) are being applied across most East-West trade lanes as carriers absorb higher fuel costs from the longer routing around Africa.

War Risk Insurance Premiums rose sharply from around 0.125% of hull value per transit to between 0.2% and 0.4% — representing an increase of hundreds of thousands of dollars for very large tankers alone.

The net effect is that total shipping costs on many routes touching the Middle East have risen 125–180% compared to pre-crisis baselines, according to freight intelligence providers.

What Routes Are Shippers Using Now?

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and Houthi forces having simultaneously resumed attacks on vessels in the Red Sea (making the Suez Canal route equally unviable), shippers are left with limited options:

1. Cape of Good Hope (Primary Alternative)

The majority of major carriers, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have rerouted their fleets around the southern tip of Africa. This adds approximately 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 additional days to voyage times on Asia-to-Europe and Asia-to-Middle East lanes. Capacity on this route is tightening rapidly, pushing rates higher still.

2. Saudi East-West Pipeline to Yanbu

Saudi Arabia is actively rerouting some crude exports through its domestic East-West pipeline, which terminates at the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, bypassing the strait entirely. This is only available for Saudi crude and has limited capacity.

3. Air Freight

Air freight rates have increased by 2–7% due to airlines flying longer routes to avoid conflict zones. DHL has launched dedicated air freight services, including a new Asia-Europe service connecting Shanghai to Leipzig, specifically in response to ocean freight disruption. For high-value or time-critical cargo, air remains viable but at significantly elevated cost.

4. Overland/Multimodal

For some European shippers, sourcing or transshipping through suppliers not dependent on Middle Eastern corridors, using overland European routes or trans-Pacific options from East Asian suppliers, can avoid the Hormuz bottleneck entirely.

Which Sectors Are Most Affected?

Energy and Chemicals: The IEA has described the closure as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Petroleum-derived goods, plastics, synthetic textiles, fertilisers, chemicals, rubber, are facing both elevated shipping costs and higher input prices at the factory level.

Fertilisers: The Persian Gulf accounts for approximately 30–35% of global urea exports and 20–30% of global ammonia exports. Supply constraints and elevated freight costs are feeding directly into agricultural input prices globally.

Consumer Goods and Electronics: Any goods manufactured in or routed through Gulf states, including significant volumes of electronics, machinery, and consumer products, are facing extended lead times and surcharges.

UK Importers and Exporters: Europe receives 12–14% of its LNG from Qatar, all of which previously transited the strait. UK businesses importing goods from the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia should expect delays and significantly higher landed costs.

The Double-Disruption Problem

One of the most significant aspects of this crisis is that it has occurred simultaneously with the resumption of Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, which began again on 28 February 2026. Suez Canal transits, which had been gradually recovering, dropped sharply once more. This means that for the first time in modern shipping history, both major Middle Eastern maritime corridors, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb/Red Sea route, are simultaneously compromised.

Analysts at Cambridge University's Girton College have described a potential scenario in which both straits remain restricted simultaneously as a "nightmare scenario", one that could block a quarter of the world's energy supply and a major share of Asia's exports to Europe.

What Happens Next? The Latest Signals (May 2026)

As of the week ending 8 May 2026:

• US–Iran negotiations are ongoing. A senior adviser to Iran has suggested a deal may be close. Brent crude fell 3.8% to around $97 a barrel on renewed hopes of an agreement.

• US naval blockade of Iranian ports has been in effect since 13 April, with mine-clearing operations underway in the strait itself.

• Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority is processing transit applications and collecting fees, though maritime law experts note this violates the UN Law of the Sea treaty.

• On 6 May, President Trump paused military operations to allow time for diplomatic talks, citing what he described as meaningful progress. However, major carriers have not resumed normal sailings.

• The Drewry World Container Index increased 3% this week to $2,286 per 40ft container, a rebound after three consecutive weeks of decline, driven by higher rates on Transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes.

Industry consensus remains that normalisation is 4–6 months away at minimum, even in an optimistic scenario.

6 Actions to Take Right Now

If your business relies on supply chains touching the Middle East, the following steps are worth taking immediately:

1. Get updated freight quotes. Rates are changing rapidly. Quotes from even two to three weeks ago are likely stale. Contact your freight forwarder for current pricing across all affected routes.

2. Build buffer stock where possible. For critical components, especially petroleum-derived products, chemicals, and goods sourced from Gulf states, increasing safety stock levels reduces vulnerability to further disruptions.

3. Explore alternative sourcing and routing. Overland European suppliers or trans-Pacific routes from East Asian suppliers can avoid the Hormuz bottleneck entirely for some cargo categories.

4. Lock in short-term rate agreements. Where possible, negotiate two to four week rate locks with your forwarder to protect against further spot market spikes.

5. Diversify your transshipment hubs. Ports on India's west coast, particularly Mundra, are experiencing severe congestion, with delays of up to 49 days reported. Ask your forwarder about alternative regional hubs in Southeast Asia or East Africa.

6. Review your cargo insurance. War risk premiums and coverage terms have changed significantly. Ensure your policies reflect current conditions and that your coverage remains adequate for rerouted voyages.

   
   

Conclusion

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis represents the most significant disruption to international freight since the COVID-19 pandemic and in some respects, its impact on energy markets is without modern precedent. For UK importers, exporters, and businesses with Middle Eastern supply chains, proactive management is essential.

Working with an experienced freight forwarder who has up-to-date carrier relationships, alternative routing capabilities, and real-time visibility of the evolving situation is the single most effective step any business can take right now.

Last updated: May 2026. This post reflects the latest available information and will be updated as the situation develops.